Federal Reserve's High Interest Rate Expectations Rise, September Non-Farm Payrolls Expected to Increase by About 90,000 to 100,000

On September 27, economists expect that the U.S. non-farm payrolls for September will increase by about 90,000 to 100,000, with the unemployment rate remaining between 4.1% and 4.2%. At the same time, it is anticipated that the actual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the U.S. for August will grow by 0.5% month-on-month, which would mark the largest increase in over a year if achieved. This indicates that the demand in the U.S. economy has not shown significant signs of cooling, providing support for the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening policy. Inflationary pressures remain a major constraint facing the Federal Reserve, with the market expecting that the overall and core PCE month-on-month growth rates for August may accelerate, and the year-on-year increase in core PCE is still at 3.3%, above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points this month, marking its first rate hike in three years, and has signaled the possibility of further rate hikes within the year, leading to increased market expectations for another 25 basis point hike in October. As U.S. Treasury yields remain high, pressures on corporate financing, housing, and high-valued assets are also accumulating. The upcoming job vacancies, PCE, ISM manufacturing, and non-farm payroll data to be released next week will be key factors influencing the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate path expectations.

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