Fed's October Rate Hold Probability at 83%, December Hike Still Possible

The probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold the benchmark interest rate steady at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 27-28 has reached 83%. This is attributed to the recent slowdown in employment indicators and the cautious stance of senior Fed officials. Senior officials have shown a cautious approach towards rate hikes, with John Williams, President of the New York Fed, emphasizing that there is no need to rush. Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair of the Fed, also mentioned that policy adjustments should be carefully considered based on data trends. Following these statements, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from the 70% range to 28%. In contrast, market expectations for a rate hike in December remain high, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point increase by December estimated at 62.3%. David Mericle, Chief U.S. Economist at Goldman Sachs, analyzed that while there is a possibility of a 25 basis point hike at the October meeting, the market is leaning towards a December increase.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.