Why Bitcoin Enters an Important Week of U.S. Data

Bitcoin may experience a week from September 28 to October 2 under strong influence from U.S. macro statistics: analysts at XWIN Japan believe that fresh data on inflation, employment, and business activity could change expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28.

• U.S. statistics from September 28 could significantly impact forecasts for the Fed rate.
• In September, the Fed unanimously raised the rate to 3.75-4%.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.39 billion last week.

In September, the regulator already raised the rate to the range of 3.75-4% amid a resilient economy and inflation that remains above the target level of 2%. Now, the reaction of the crypto market will depend not only on the numbers themselves but also on how much they diverge from analysts' expectations.

Which Reports Will Be Important for the Market

In a review for CryptoQuant, experts from XWIN Japan highlighted four key publications of the week. On Tuesday at 17:00 MSK, the August JOLTS report on job openings will be released. On Wednesday at 15:30 MSK, data on inflation for August based on the PCE index and the final GDP estimate for the U.S. for the second quarter will be published.

On Thursday at 17:00 MSK, the market will receive the September ISM manufacturing index. On Friday at 15:30 MSK, the September labor market statistics will be released. Prices for oil and events surrounding Iran will remain a separate source of tension.

Analysts estimate that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is focusing not on a single publication but on the sustainability of the inflation trend. He does not pre-fix the trajectory of the rate. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, who nominated Warsh, insists on lowering the rate. The September increase was unanimous.

How Data Could Affect Bitcoin

If inflation remains high and the labor market shows strong hiring, expectations for the rate may rise. In such a scenario, government bond yields and the dollar are likely to receive support, which would be a negative factor for Bitcoin.

Conversely, softer inflation and a gradual cooling of the labor market could help risk assets. However, a sharp deterioration in employment would bring back recession fears to the market. Expensive oil adds an additional risk.

Analysts suggest primarily assessing the difference between forecasts and actual data, and then monitoring yields, dollar dynamics, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and positioning in the futures market. The October Fed decision is still undecided: the consumer price index for September will be released only on October 14.

What the September Fed Decision Showed

The Fed raised the rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75-4%. This was the first increase since 2023, and all 12 voting committee members supported the decision. At the same time, 16 out of 18 regulator representatives expect another increase by the end of the year.

Bitcoin reacted with growth at that time, despite the tightening of policy. Before the announcement of the decision, futures on the rate already priced in a 92.7% probability of an increase. The price fell to $75,350 but rose above $76,100 after the meeting. This episode shows why XWIN Japan emphasizes not the fact of the decision itself but the divergence between expectations and reality.

The political backdrop also intensifies uncertainty. Immediately after the decision, Trump demanded to lower the rate to 1% or lower and threatened to halt trade with countries that sell more to the U.S. than they buy. New macro data will either provide him with additional arguments or strengthen Warsh's position.

Meanwhile, institutional demand has noticeably recovered. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.39 billion in the week from September 21 to 25 — the highest since October 2025. In September, such funds collected about $2.92 billion, and since the beginning of August — approximately $6.23 billion. Analysts identify inflows into these products as one of the key indicators of the market's reaction to U.S. statistics.

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