Bitcoin one-year HODL wave rises to 63.3%, but signals limited demand

Bitcoin's one-year HODL wave reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up 0.98 percentage points from 62.32% on Aug. 18, according to Maketo's HODL-wave data. The increase indicates more supply is held in older bands, but does not confirm new demand. The one-to-two-year band rose to 14.57% from 13.52%, while the six-to-twelve-month band fell to 17.53% from 19.10%. Coins last moved within one month accounted for 7.03% of supply, down 0.27 percentage points from 7.30%. The changes suggest that while Bitcoin's on-chain age distribution is growing older, the decline in recently moved coins indicates a tightening of available supply. However, this does not provide evidence of fresh accumulation or increased market demand. Further analysis of entity-adjusted balances, exchange flows, and spending behavior is needed to validate any new accumulation thesis.

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