Brent Crude Oil Surpasses $102, Iran Prepares for Intense Warfare

On September 10, the price of Brent crude oil surpassed $102 per barrel, intensifying market concerns over the prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict. Senior Iranian officials stated that in the face of ongoing U.S. attacks, Iran has no intention of backing down and is prepared to escalate its counterattacks. U.S. President Trump indicated that the war could last until after the midterm elections in November, making it unlikely for gasoline prices to significantly decrease in the short term, while market expectations for a de-escalation of the conflict have weakened. Brent crude oil has risen nearly 70% this year, with the physical benchmark price reaching as high as $114. U.S. diesel prices are nearing $6 per gallon, and gasoline and diesel prices in Europe continue to rise, exacerbating energy inflation pressures. Market participants noted that if the conflict affects oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could continue to rise. The U.S. is compressing Iranian oil exports through maritime blockades, and White House advisors are discussing scenarios where the war could last until the end of Trump's term. Additionally, crude oil purchases by Asian countries are tightening global supply, but high oil prices may force some refineries to reduce processing volumes. U.S. diesel inventories are expected to drop to their lowest levels in over 20 years this month.

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