Bitcoin Faces Macro Pressure from Oil Prices, Key Negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz Between the US and Iran

By: x.com|09/27/2026 12:07:03

On September 27, Bitfinex analysis pointed out that the current macro pressure on Bitcoin is mainly transmitted through oil prices, which depend on the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, progress was made in the negotiations, leading to a decline in crude oil prices, alleviating inflationary pressures and reducing the impact of a stronger dollar and high US bond yields on risk assets. If the negotiations stall, crude oil prices may rise again, thereby increasing market pressure through inflation, the dollar, and bond yield channels. Therefore, the market needs to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's policies and the progress of US-Iran negotiations.

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Major equity indexes closed lower on October 7 ET. Long-end yields rose again, and the 30-year yield hit a roughly 24-year high. September Fed minutes showed most participants thought another increase in the federal funds target range before year-end could be appropriate. CME pricing for a 25 bp hike at the October 27–28 meeting has fallen below 20%, far below about 70% in the days after the September decision. Bitcoin traded near $83,300. The October 8 focus is jobless claims and pre-market earnings from Pepsi and Delta.

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